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Bitcoin Climbs to New 21-month High Ahead of ETF Decision

  • BTCUSD rallies and hits new 21-month high
  • RSI and MACD detect positive momentum
  • Bearish reversal to be considered upon dip below $41,200

BTCUSD surged yesterday, breaking back above $45,000 and hitting a new 21-month high at $47,282. It seems that the euphoria around the potential approval of a spot-Bitcoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been the main driver behind the current uptrend, increasing the chances for a sell-the-fact response at the time of the announcement.

That said, from a technical standpoint, even if the crypto king corrects lower, provided it stays above the uptrend line drawn from the low of October 13 and above the 50-day EMA, which has been tracking the advance well, the near-term outlook could still be considered positive. A break above the highs of March 2022 at around $48,200 could signal a trend continuation and perhaps pave the way towards the high of December 27, 2021, near $52,100.

The RSI and the MACD are both detecting positive momentum, with the former lying slightly below 70 and the latter running above both its zero and trigger lines. However, the RSI has ticked down after hitting resistance near its 70 line, which increases the likelihood of a small pullback before the next leg north.

For the outlook to start darkening, Bitcoin may need to dive below the $41,200 zone, which offered support several times since December 11. A break below that barrier may not only confirm the dip below the aforementioned uptrend line but also a violation of the 50-day EMA. The bears may then be encouraged to push the action down to the $38,000 area.

To recap, BTCUSD has been in uptrend mode since October in anticipation of a regulatory approval for Bitcoin-backed ETFs. The announcement of the approval may result in a corrective setback, but for a trend-reversal to start being discussed, a dip below $41,200 may be needed.

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