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Canadian Dollar Eyes US Nonfarm Payrolls

US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop to 180,000

The week wraps up with the US nonfarm payroll report later today. The ADP employment report, which was released on Wednesday, fell from 158,000 to 107,000. The ADP report isn’t considered a reliable guide for nonfarm payrolls, but investors still attach significance to it as they hunt for clues as to where nonfarm payrolls are headed. In this instance, nonfarm payrolls are expected to follow the ADP lead and decline to 180,000 in January, down from 216,000 in December. If the estimate proves to be wide of the actual reading, we could see volatility from USD/CAD later today.

Strong US data could allow BOC to delay rate cuts

Canada’s stagnant economy showed signs of life late in 2023, as November GDP climbed 0.2% m/m. This was by no means an explosive expansion, but was still a welcome improvement after three consecutive months of zero growth. The December GDP is expected to tick higher, with an estimate of 0.3% m/m according to Stats Canada.

The US economy remains solid, and recent key releases have been stronger than expected. Canada’s economy is closely intertwined with its giant southern neighbor and US economic strength has spilled into Canada and could continue to do so into 2024. If Canada’s economy continues to expand, there will be less pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates. Inflation is running at 3.4% and the BoC would like to keep rates in restrictive territory in order to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. The BoC hasn’t signaled it will be lowering rates but the central bank will likely cut rates once the Federal Reserve has done so.

USD/CAD Technical

  • There is resistance at 1.3400 and 1.3467
  • 1.3349 and 1.3310 are providing support


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