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EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex

EUR/AUD was still stuck in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127. Further rally should then be seen to 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, below 1.6455 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.6348 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5902) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

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