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It is non-farm payrolls day to kick start the new month

With the focus being on the non-farm payrolls, we are likely to be in for a quiet and more tentative session in Europe later. Major currencies are mostly little changed so far on the day and barring any major headline surprises, there might not be much appetite to stretch things too much in the session ahead.

The dollar was knocked off its perch earlier this week but recovered some poise in trading yesterday amid a fall in the euro currency. EUR/USD is now sitting in a 16 pips range and little changed at 1.0837 currently. Just be mindful that we do have some large option expiries for the pair coming up later and that could factor into price action after the main event ahead of the long weekend.

But to keep things more simply, the spotlight will be on the US jobs report or more specifically, if there are any further signs of growing softness in the US economy. That has been the minor narrative earlier this week as markets look to rethink the bigger picture a little.

Is the August seasonal going to deliver yet another disappointing figure for the dollar and bid up bonds? That is arguably the key reaction function to watch and that will also in turn impact equities/risk trades.

So, strap yourselves in. It’s going to be quite the bumpy end to the week.

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