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The bond market still holds the cards as we step into the final month of the year


As the focus stays on the outlook for major central banks and how soon that they might turn towards rate cuts, it’s all about pricing for that and bond yields at the moment. That is the number one driving factor for trading sentiment and it will be no different as we head into December.

US Treasury 10-year yields (%) daily chart

10-year Treasury yields saw its biggest monthly tumble since August 2011 last month and the key thing to note is that the drop took out the 100-day moving average (red line) as seen above.

That remains arguably one of the more important developments with regards to broader market sentiment currently and it will be one to watch to see if the fall in yields will continue this month. In turn, that will reverberate to the dollar and equities alike.

The thing here is that markets have now priced in roughly 115 bps worth of rate cuts by the Fed and roughly 114 bps worth of rate cuts by the ECB for the entirety of next year. Is that the maximum limit? The first rate cut for the former is seen around May while for the latter, it is seen around April. That’s all less than six months away.

Are we really at that point to call inflation dead already? If the data and central banks say otherwise, then we know what the pain point for markets is going to be now considering what is priced above. Watch this space in the months ahead.



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