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US household versus establishment employment surveys

Here’s a great chart from BMO showing the consistent jobs growth in the establishment survey compared to the household survey showing net job losses since June.

On both charts, BMO highlights the slowing trend.

On a 6-month moving
average basis, this dragged the household survey’s payrolls growth to just 32k,
and even the establishment survey’s 6-month moving average has slipped to
effectively its lowest level since the pandemic. It’s no secret that labor is the
benchmark lagging indicator, and as such, the trend in hiring holds marginally
more weight than the outright level for monetary policymakers.

The latest jobs report is due Friday, December 8.

This article was written by Adam Button at

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