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What are the odds of a RBA rate hike next month now?


In case you missed the headlines from earlier, you can check out Eamonn’s recap here: RBA rate hike incoming on November 7 – will they hike again in December?

The OIS market is now pricing in roughly 63% odds of a 25 bps move next month, following the stronger-than-expected inflation numbers earlier today. That also prompted the likes of ANZ and CBA to make the call that the RBA will deliver another rate hike on 7 November.

The peak pricing on rates right now is seen around ~4.45% and is a bit of a jump from the previously seen ~4.31%. For reference, the RBA cash rate is at 4.10% so it means that markets have priced in at least one more rate hike and just a bit more at the moment.



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